Will Scotland at last break the New Zealand curse?
International Rugby Series: Scotland v New Zealand
Venue: Scottish Gas Murrayfield, the Scottish capital Date: Saturday, 8 November Time: 15:10 GMT
Things were simpler then. Match number four of the Scottish and New Zealand teams. A heaving Murrayfield, a scoreless tie, January 1964. Euphoria at full-time. A pitch invasion to symbolize the home team's momentous achievement.
After defeating Ireland, Wales and England, the All Blacks had finally been halted in a Test.
The man from Pathe News was nearly overcome with excitement. "An unforgettable sporting spectacle," he reported breathlessly and somewhat optimistically. "Where Scottish rugby preserved British pride."
Exiting the ground after the match, Scottish fans would have had hope for the future. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and no wins, but obvious indications that maybe one was not far off.
A few seasons after, New Zealand beat the Scots. Half a decade later, they beat them again. Another three years passed, identical outcome. Five more years went by and, yes, you know the rest.
Modern Encounters
Two decades of matches later. Twenty All Black wins. From Christchurch to Dunedin, Auckland to Cardiff - the landscapes have changed but results remain consistent.
During his tenure, Scotland's coach has ended losing runs in Paris, Cardiff and Twickenham, but this challenge is different. This is 32 games across 120 years. Among rugby's most persistent curses.
Squad Updates
In recent years the landslide 20, 30 and 40-point wins have narrowed to eight points, five points and eight points in 2014, 2017 and 2022, but New Zealand consistently prevail.
Through their brilliance, their power, their chicanery, they secure victory.
We're now at the point of the week where the optimism that some may have held for Scottish success is likely diminishing. Hope is colliding with history.
Key Absences
Recent updates revealed that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. For Scotland's hopes it was a significant setback.
Fagerson hasn't played since April, but he's a freak and if available then his absence from play would not have been a massive concern.
During modern rugby early in matches, Fagerson's engine keeps running. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the Six Nations.
Squad Depth
Another absence is Jones but Rory Hutchinson is flying form with Northampton. Fagerson's replacement presents concerns. While Rae is capable, his Test career consists of 73 minutes stretched across six years.
Once Rae's shift ends, there's Elliot Millar-Mills to come on. Millar-Mills is a decent prop, evidence is lacking that he can match New Zealand's standard.
Coaching Choices
Townsend has sprung surprises, partly expected, some puzzling. Kyle Steyn's game-management intelligence replaces Duhan van der Merwe's more one-dimensional power.
The flanker selection is unconventional, Rory Darge starting on the bench. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23.
Past Encounters
Against Ireland, New Zealand won the opening match of what they hope will be an undefeated tour. They took an age to get going, even when playing against 14 men, but their final surge did the trick.
Combined with Irish vulnerabilities, their attack, set-piece issues.
By the Numbers
Despite late-game surges, the last 20 minutes is not where the All Blacks do most of their damage. In all of their Tests recently, they've accumulated scores in opening periods and 60 in the second half.
Strong opening performances, 48 in the second, moderate third quarters and 34 in the fourth. They come exploding out of the traps.
Required Performance
During their last meeting, they struck twice in the initial stages. Establishing early dominance, the game looked done. Scotland fought back impressively to dominate temporarily.
The lesson here is that, metaphorically, Scotland needs sustained pressure from the start - and keep it there.
In recent years, successful opponents have needed to score in the high-20s. Scottish scoring only occasionally against the All Blacks.
Final Analysis
Perfect execution is required for Townsend's team. Everything. Wasted opportunities then hopes fade. Disciplinary issues? Repeated infringements? A battered scrum? It's over.
But what if everything does go right? A blistering beginning. A raucous crowd. Bedlam. Ruthlessness. Finn Russell's magic. Darcy Graham's brilliance.
Fantasy rugby, perhaps. We haven't seen an 80 minutes from Scotland that would be good enough to beat the All Blacks. If the capability exists, now is the moment; a century is sufficient.